TY - JOUR
AU - Kopasker, Daniel
AU - Bronka, Patryk
AU - Thomson, Rachel M.
AU - Khodygo, Vladimir
AU - Kromydas, Theocharis
AU - Meier, Petra S.
AU - Heppenstall, Alison J.
AU - Bambra, Clare
AU - Lomax, Nik
AU - Craig, Peter
AU - Richiardi, Matteo
AU - Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal
PY - 2024
DA - May
TI - Evaluating the influence of taxation and social security policies on psychological distress: a microsimulation study of the UK during the COVID-19 economic crisis
JO - Social Science & Medicine
VL - 351
DO - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.116953
AB - Economic determinants are important for population health, but actionable evidence of how policies can utilise these pathways remains scarce. This study employs a microsimulation framework to evaluate the effects of taxation and social security policies on population mental health. The UK economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic provides an informative context involving an economic shock accompanied by one of the strongest discretionary fiscal responses amongst OECD countries. The analytical setup involves a dynamic, stochastic, discrete-time microsimulation model (SimPaths) projecting changes in psychological distress given predicted economic outcomes from a static tax-benefit microsimulation model (UKMOD) based on different policy scenarios. We contrast projections of psychological distress for the working-age population from 2017 to 2025 given the observed policy environment against a counterfactual scenario where pre-crisis policies remained in place. Levels of psychological distress and potential cases of common mental disorders (CMDs) were assessed with the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). The UK policy response to the economic crisis is estimated to have prevented a substantial fall (over 12 percentage points, %pt) in the employment rate in 2020 and 2021. In 2020, projected psychological distress increased substantially (CMD prevalence increase &gt;10%pt) under both the observed and the counterfactual policy scenarios. Through economic pathways, the policy response is estimated to have prevented a further 3.4%pt [95%UI 2.8%pt, 4.0%pt] increase in the prevalence of CMDs, approximately 1.2 million cases. Beyond 2021, as employment levels rapidly recovered, psychological distress returned to the pre-pandemic trend. Sustained preventative effects on poverty are estimated, with projected levels 2.1%pt [95%UI 1.8%pt, 2.5%pt] lower in 2025 than in the absence of the observed policy response. The study shows that policies protecting employment during an economic crisis are effective in preventing short-term mental health losses and have lasting effects on poverty levels. This preventative effect has substantial public health benefits.
PB - Elsevier
UR - https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/326026/
KW - Coronavirus (COVID-19)
KW - Mental health and wellbeing
ER