@article{Barnard_R-2022_113537,
title = {Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era},
author = {Barnard, R. and Davies, N. and Munday, J. and Lowe, R. and Knight, G. and Leclerc, Q. and Tully, D. and Hodgson, D. and Pung, R. and Hellewell, J. and Koltai, M. and Simons, D. and Abbas, K. and Kucharski, A. and Procter, S. and Sandmann, F. and Pearson, C. and Prem, K. and Showering, A. and Meakin, S. and O’Reilly, K. and McCarthy, C. and Quaife, M. and Wong, K. and Jafari, Y. and Deol, A. and Houben, R. and Diamond, C. and Jombart, T. and Villabona-Arenas, C. and Waites, W. and Eggo, R. and Endo, A. and Gibbs, H. and Klepac, P. and Williams, J. and Quilty, B. and Brady, O. and Emery, J. and Atkins, K. and Chapman, L. and Sherratt, K. and Abbott, S. and Bosse, N. and Mee, P. and Funk, S. and Lei, J. and Liu, Y. and Flasche, S. and Rudge, J.},
month = {aug},
year = {2022},
abstract = {England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.},
volume = {13},
journal = {Nature Communications},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y 10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y},
}
