@article{Volz_E-2021_37050,
title = {Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England},
author = {Volz, E. and Mishra, S. and Chand, M. and Barrett, J. and Johnson, R. and Geidelberg, L. and Hinsley, W. and Laydon, D. and Dabrera, G. and O'Toole, Á. and Amato, R. and Ragonnet-Cronin, M. and Harrison, I. and Jackson, B. and Ariani, C. and Boyd, O. and Loman, N. and McCrone, J. and Gonçalves, S. and Jorgensen, D. and Myers, R. and Hill, V. and Jackson, D. and Gaythorpe, K. and Groves, N. and Sillitoe, J. and Kwiatkowski, D. and The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium and Flaxman, S. and Ratmann, O. and Bhatt, S. and Hopkins, S. and Gandy, A. and Rambaut, A. and Ferguson, N.},
month = {mar},
year = {2021},
abstract = {The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 by Public Health England, was first identified in the UK in late summer to early autumn 2020. Whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing for COVID-19 show an extremely rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during autumn 2020, suggesting that it has a selective advantage. Here we show that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that B.1.1.7 has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if it has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with cases of B.1.1.7 including a larger share of under 20-year-olds than non-VOC cases. We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers for B.1.1.7 and co-circulating lineages using SGTF and genomic data. The best-supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups, but all analyses agreed that B.1.1.7 has a substantial transmission advantage over other lineages, with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.},
pages = {266-269},
volume = {593},
journal = {Nature},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x},
}
