@article{Herng_L-2022_58470,
title = {The effects of super spreading events and movement control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia},
author = {Herng, L. and Singh, S. and Sundram, B. and Zamri, A. and Vei, T. and Aris, T. and Ibrahim, H. and Abdullah, N. and Dass, S. and Gill, B.},
month = {feb},
year = {2022},
abstract = {This paper aims to develop an automated web application to generate validated daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) which can be used to examine the effects of super-spreading events due to mass gatherings and the effectiveness of the various Movement Control Order (MCO) stringency levels on the outbreak progression of COVID-19 in Malaysia. The effective reproduction number, Rt, was estimated by adopting and modifying an Rt estimation algorithm using a validated distribution mean of 3.96 and standard deviation of 4.75 with a seven-day sliding window. The Rt values generated were validated using thea moving window SEIR model with a negative binomial likelihood fitted using methods from the Bayesian inferential framework. A Pearson's correlation between the Rt values estimated by the algorithm and the SEIR model was r = 0.70, p &lt; 0.001 and r = 0.81, p &lt; 0.001 during the validation period The Rt increased to reach the highest values at 3.40 (95% CI 1.47, 6.14) and 1.72 (95% CI 1.54, 1.90) due to the Sri Petaling and Sabah electoral process during the second and third waves of COVID-19 respectively. The MCOs was able to reduce the Rt values by 63.2 to 77.1% and 37.0 to 47.0% during the second and third waves of COVID-19, respectively. Mass gathering events were one of the important drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia. However, COVID-19 transmission can be fuelled by noncompliance to Standard Operating Procedure, population mobility, ventilation and environmental factors.},
volume = {12},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06341-1},
}
