@article{Arnold_K-2022_82755,
title = {Estimating the effects of lockdown timing on COVID-19 cases and deaths in England: a counterfactual modelling study},
author = {Arnold, K. and Gilthorpe, M. and Alwan, N. and Heppenstall, A. and Tomova, G. and McKee, M. and Tennant, P.},
month = {apr},
year = {2022},
abstract = {Background: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom experienced one of the highest per-capita death tolls worldwide. It is debated whether this may partly be explained by the relatively late initiation of voluntary social distancing and mandatory lockdown measures. In this study, we used simulations to estimate the number of cases and deaths that would have occurred in England by 1 June 2020 if these interventions had been implemented one or two weeks earlier, and the impact on the required duration of lockdown.},
volume = {17},
issue = {4},
journal = {PLoS ONE},
publisher = {Public Library of Science},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263432},
}
