TY - JOUR
AU - Barnard, Rosanna C.
AU - Davies, Nicholas G.
AU - Munday, James D.
AU - Lowe, Rachel
AU - Knight, Gwenan M.
AU - Leclerc, Quentin J.
AU - Tully, Damien C.
AU - Hodgson, David
AU - Pung, Rachael
AU - Hellewell, Joel
AU - Koltai, Mihaly
AU - Simons, David
AU - Abbas, Kaja
AU - Kucharski, Adam J.
AU - Procter, Simon R.
AU - Sandmann, Frank G.
AU - Pearson, Carl A.B.
AU - Prem, Kiesha
AU - Showering, Alicia
AU - Meakin, Sophie
AU - O’Reilly, Kathleen
AU - McCarthy, Ciara V.
AU - Quaife, Matthew
AU - Wong, Kerry L.M.
AU - Jafari, Yalda
AU - Deol, Arminder K.
AU - Houben, Rein M.G.J.
AU - Diamond, Charlie
AU - Jombart, Thibaut
AU - Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian
AU - Waites, William
AU - Eggo, Rosalind M.
AU - Endo, Akira
AU - Gibbs, Hamish P.
AU - Klepac, Petra
AU - Williams, Jack
AU - Quilty, Billy J.
AU - Brady, Oliver J.
AU - Emery, Jon C.
AU - Atkins, Katherine E.
AU - Chapman, Lloyd A.C.
AU - Sherratt, Katharine
AU - Abbott, Sam
AU - Bosse, Nikos I.
AU - Mee, Paul
AU - Funk, Sebastian
AU - Lei, Jiayao
AU - Liu, Yang
AU - Flasche, Stefan
AU - Rudge, James W.
PY - 2022
DA - August
TI - Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era
JO - Nature Communications
VL - 13
DO - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y 10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y
AB - England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.
PB - Springer Nature
UR - https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/84397/
KW - Coronavirus (COVID-19)
ER