TY - JOUR
AU - Bird, Olivia
AU - Galiza, Eva P.
AU - Baxter, David Neil
AU - Boffito, Marta
AU - Browne, Duncan
AU - Burns, Fiona
AU - Chadwick, David R.
AU - Clark, Rebecca
AU - Cosgrove, Catherine A
AU - Galloway, James
AU - Goodman, Anna L.
AU - Heer, Amardeep
AU - Higham, Andrew
AU - Iyengar, Shalini
AU - Jeanes, Christopher
AU - Kalra, Philip A.
AU - Kyriakidou, Christina
AU - Bradley, Judy M
AU - Munthali, Chigomezgo
AU - Minassian, Angela M.
AU - McGill, Fiona
AU - Moore, Patrick
AU - Munsoor, Imrozia
AU - Nicholls, Helen
AU - Osanlou, Orod
AU - Packham, Jonathan
AU - Pretswell, Carol H.
AU - San Francisco Ramos, Alberto
AU - Saralaya, Dinesh
AU - Sheridan, Ray P.
AU - Smith, Richard
AU - Soiza, Roy
AU - Swift, Pauline A.
AU - Thomson, Emma C.
AU - Turner, Jeremy
AU - Viljoen, Marianne Elizabeth
AU - Heath, Paul T
AU - Ster, Irina Chis
PY - 2024
DA - January
TI - The predictive role of symptoms in COVID-19 diagnostic models: A longitudinal insight
JO - Epidemiology and Infection
VL - 152
DO - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268824000037
AB - To investigate the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection, their dynamics and their discriminatory power for the disease using longitudinally, prospectively collected information reported at the time of their occurrence. We have analysed data from a large phase 3 clinical UK COVID-19 vaccine trial. The alpha variant was the predominant strain. Participants were assessed for SARS-CoV-2 infection via nasal/throat PCR at recruitment, vaccination appointments, and when symptomatic. Statistical techniques were implemented to infer estimates representative of the UK population, accounting for multiple symptomatic episodes associated with one individual. An optimal diagnostic model for SARS-CoV-2 infection was derived. The 4-month prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.1%; increasing to 19.4% (16.0%–22.7%) in participants reporting loss of appetite and 31.9% (27.1%–36.8%) in those with anosmia/ageusia. The model identified anosmia and/or ageusia, fever, congestion, and cough to be significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Symptoms’ dynamics were vastly different in the two groups; after a slow start peaking later and lasting longer in PCR+ participants, whilst exhibiting a consistent decline in PCR- participants, with, on average, fewer than 3 days of symptoms reported. Anosmia/ageusia peaked late in confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (day 12), indicating a low discrimination power for early disease diagnosis.
PB - Cambridge University Press
UR - https://hdl.handle.net/2164/22913
KW - Coronavirus (COVID-19)
ER