TY - JOUR
AU - Volz, Erik
AU - Mishra, Swapnil
AU - Chand, Meera
AU - Barrett, Jeffrey C.
AU - Johnson, Robert
AU - Geidelberg, Lily
AU - Hinsley, Wes R.
AU - Laydon, Daniel J
AU - Dabrera, Gavin
AU - O'Toole, Áine Niamh
AU - Amato, Roberto
AU - Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon
AU - Harrison, Ian
AU - Jackson, Ben
AU - Ariani, Cristina V.
AU - Boyd, Olivia
AU - Loman, Nicholas J.
AU - McCrone, John T.
AU - Gonçalves, Sónia
AU - Jorgensen, David
AU - Myers, Richard
AU - Hill, Verity
AU - Jackson, David K.
AU - Gaythorpe, Katy
AU - Groves, Natalie
AU - Sillitoe, John
AU - Kwiatkowski, Dominic P.
AU - The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium
AU - Flaxman, Seth
AU - Ratmann, Oliver
AU - Bhatt, Samir
AU - Hopkins, Susan
AU - Gandy, Axel
AU - Rambaut, Andrew
AU - Ferguson, Neil M.
PY - 2021
DA - March
TI - Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
JO - Nature
EP - 269
VL - 593
DO - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03470-x
AB - The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 by Public Health England, was first identified in the UK in late summer to early autumn 2020. Whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing for COVID-19 show an extremely rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during autumn 2020, suggesting that it has a selective advantage. Here we show that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that B.1.1.7 has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if it has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with cases of B.1.1.7 including a larger share of under 20-year-olds than non-VOC cases. We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers for B.1.1.7 and co-circulating lineages using SGTF and genomic data. The best-supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups, but all analyses agreed that B.1.1.7 has a substantial transmission advantage over other lineages, with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.
PB - Springer Nature
UR - https://publichealthscotland.scot/id/37050
KW - Coronavirus (COVID-19)
ER