TY - JOUR
AU - Thompson, Robin N.
AU - Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre
AU - Isham, Valerie
AU - Arribas-Bel, Daniel
AU - Ashby, Ben
AU - Britton, Tom
AU - Challenor, Peter
AU - Chappell, Lauren H. K.
AU - Clapham, Hannah
AU - Cunniffe, Nik J.
AU - Dawid, A. Philip
AU - Donnelly, Christl A.
AU - Eggo, Rosalind M.
AU - Funk, Sebastian
AU - Gilbert, Nigel
AU - Glendinning, Paul
AU - Gog, Julia R.
AU - Hart, William S.
AU - Heesterbeek, Hans
AU - House, Thomas
AU - Keeling, Matt
AU - Kiss, István Z.
AU - Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.
AU - Lloyd, Alun L.
AU - McBryde, Emma S.
AU - McCaw, James M.
AU - McKinley, Trevelyan J.
AU - Miller, Joel C.
AU - Morris, Martina
AU - O'Neill, Philip D.
AU - Parag, Kris V.
AU - Pearson, Carl A.B.
AU - Pellis, Lorenzo
AU - Pulliam, Juliet R. C.
AU - Ross, Joshua V.
AU - Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia
AU - Silverman, Bernard W.
AU - Struchiner, Claudio J.
AU - Tildesley, Michael J.
AU - Trapman, Pieter
AU - Webb, Cerian R.
AU - Mollison, Denis
AU - Restif, Olivier
PY - 2020
DA - August
TI - Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies
JO - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
VL - 287
IS - 1932
DO - https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1405
AB - Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
PB - The Royal Society
UR - https://researchportal.hw.ac.uk/en/publications/6ab1fb5b-d87a-41ca-b5aa-a1784c38390a
KW - Coronavirus (COVID-19)
ER