TY - JOUR
AU - Arnold, Kellyn F.
AU - Gilthorpe, Mark S.
AU - Alwan, Nisreen A.
AU - Heppenstall, Alison J.
AU - Tomova, Georgia D.
AU - McKee, Martin
AU - Tennant, Peter W.G.
PY - 2022
DA - April
TI - Estimating the effects of lockdown timing on COVID-19 cases and deaths in England: a counterfactual modelling study
JO - PLoS ONE
VL - 17
IS - 4
DO - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263432
AB - Background: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom experienced one of the highest per-capita death tolls worldwide. It is debated whether this may partly be explained by the relatively late initiation of voluntary social distancing and mandatory lockdown measures. In this study, we used simulations to estimate the number of cases and deaths that would have occurred in England by 1 June 2020 if these interventions had been implemented one or two weeks earlier, and the impact on the required duration of lockdown.
PB - Public Library of Science
UR - http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/263580/
KW - Coronavirus (COVID-19)
ER