TY - JOUR
AU - Kraemer, Moritz U.G.
AU - Hill, Verity
AU - Ruis, Christopher
AU - Dellicour, Simon
AU - Bajaj, Sumali
AU - McCrone, John T.
AU - Baele, Guy
AU - Parag, Kris V.
AU - Battle, Anya Lindström
AU - Gutierrez, Bernardo
AU - Jackson, Ben
AU - Colquhoun, Rachel M.
AU - O'Toole, Áine Niamh
AU - Klein, Brennan
AU - Vespignani, Alessandro
AU - Volz, Erik
AU - Faria, Nuno Rodrigues
AU - Aanensen, David M.
AU - Loman, Nicholas J.
AU - du Plessis, Louis
AU - Cauchemez, Simon
AU - Rambaut, Andrew
AU - Scarpino, Samuel V.
AU - Pybus, Oliver G.
PY - 2021
DA - August
TI - Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence
JO - Science 
EP - 895
VL - 373
IS - 6557
DO - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0113
AB - Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7’s increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.
PB - American Association for the Advancement of Science
UR - https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/5d17a48c-4588-4212-9d3e-5ff5901a72d2
KW - Coronavirus (COVID-19)
ER