TY - JOUR
AU - Sera, Francesco
AU - Armstrong, Ben
AU - Abbott, Sam
AU - Meakin, Sophie
AU - O'Reilly, Kathleen M.
AU - von Borries, Rosa
AU - Schneider, Rochelle
AU - Royé, Dominic
AU - Hashizume, Masahiro
AU - Pascal, Mathilde
AU - Tobias, Aurelio
AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
AU - MCC Collaborative Research Network
AU - CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
AU - Gasparrini, Antonio
AU - Lowe, Rachel
PY - 2021
DA - October
TI - A cross-sectional analysis of meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 409 cities across 26 countries
JO - Nature Communications
VL - 12
IS - 1
DO - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25914-8
AB - There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduction number (Re) in 409 cities in 26 countries, with a decrease of 0.087 (95% CI: 0.025; 0.148) for a 10 °C increase. Early interventions have a greater effect on Rewith a decrease of 0.285 (95% CI 0.223; 0.347) for a 5th - 95th percentile increase in the government response index. The variation in the effective reproduction number explained by government interventions is 6 times greater than for mean temperature. We find little evidence of meteorological conditions having influenced the early stages of local epidemics and conclude that population behaviour and government interventions are more important drivers of transmission.
PB - Springer Nature
UR - https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/3315cb4b-a437-4da2-87ca-811b5fc16433
KW - Coronavirus (COVID-19)
KW - Environment, community and place
ER