TY - JOUR
AU - Davis, Emma L.
AU - Lucas, Tim C.D.
AU - Borlase, Anna
AU - Pollington, Timothy M.
AU - Abbott, Sam
AU - Ayabina, Diepreye
AU - Crellen, Thomas
AU - Hellewell, Joel
AU - CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
PY - 2021
DA - September
TI - Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence
JO - Nature Communications
VL - 12
IS - 1
DO - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5
AB - Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.
PB - Springer Nature
UR - https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/a7a87ff9-b863-4f22-836a-73bef5e7ad67
KW - Coronavirus (COVID-19)
ER