TY - JOUR
AU - Hodgson, David
AU - Flasche, Stefan
AU - Jit, Mark
AU - Kucharski, Adam J.
AU - CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
PY - 2021
DA - May
TI - The potential for vaccination-induced herd immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant
JO - Eurosurveillance
VL - 26
IS - 20
DO - https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.20.2100428
AB - We assess the feasibility of reaching the herd immunity threshold against SARS-CoV-2 through vaccination, considering vaccine effectiveness (VE), transmissibility of the virus and the level of pre-existing immunity in populations, as well as their age structure. If highly transmissible variants of concern become dominant in areas with low levels of naturally-acquired immunity and/or in populations with large proportions of &lt; 15 year-olds, control of infection without non-pharmaceutical interventions may only be possible with a VE ≥ 80%, and coverage extended to children. Initial reports of vaccine effectiveness against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2), the virus responsible for coronavirus disease (COVID-19), have suggested a substantial reduction of the risk of infection [1]. Nevertheless, with the emergence of more transmissible variants such as B.1.1.7 [2], how large-scale immunisation programmes against SARS-CoV-2 will perform is currently unclear. This study assesses the potential of COVID-19 vaccination to generate herd immunity and takes into account vaccine effectiveness, naturally-acquired immunity and achievable vaccination coverage (depending on the population age structure), as well as two transmissibility scenarios ((i) with pre-B.1.1.7, and (ii) with exclusively B.1.1.7 variants).
PB - European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
UR - https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/publications/36bf8fa4-a0bd-466a-a111-eeec31197f38
KW - Coronavirus (COVID-19)
KW - Immunisation and screening
ER