- Published
- 22 January 2024
- Journal article
The predictive role of symptoms in COVID-19 diagnostic models: A longitudinal insight
- Authors
-
- Source
- Epidemiology and Infection
Abstract
To investigate the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection, their dynamics and their discriminatory power for the disease using longitudinally, prospectively collected information reported at the time of their occurrence. We have analysed data from a large phase 3 clinical UK COVID-19 vaccine trial. The alpha variant was the predominant strain. Participants were assessed for SARS-CoV-2 infection via nasal/throat PCR at recruitment, vaccination appointments, and when symptomatic. Statistical techniques were implemented to infer estimates representative of the UK population, accounting for multiple symptomatic episodes associated with one individual. An optimal diagnostic model for SARS-CoV-2 infection was derived. The 4-month prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.1%; increasing to 19.4% (16.0%–22.7%) in participants reporting loss of appetite and 31.9% (27.1%–36.8%) in those with anosmia/ageusia. The model identified anosmia and/or ageusia, fever, congestion, and cough to be significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Symptoms’ dynamics were vastly different in the two groups; after a slow start peaking later and lasting longer in PCR+ participants, whilst exhibiting a consistent decline in PCR- participants, with, on average, fewer than 3 days of symptoms reported. Anosmia/ageusia peaked late in confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (day 12), indicating a low discrimination power for early disease diagnosis.
Rights
© The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Cite as
Bird, O., Galiza, E., Baxter, D., Boffito, M., Browne, D., Burns, F., Chadwick, D., Clark, R., Cosgrove, C., Galloway, J., Goodman, A., Heer, A., Higham, A., Iyengar, S., Jeanes, C., Kalra, P., Kyriakidou, C., Bradley, J., Munthali, C., Minassian, A., McGill, F., Moore, P., Munsoor, I., Nicholls, H., Osanlou, O., Packham, J., Pretswell, C., San Francisco Ramos, A., Saralaya, D., Sheridan, R., Smith, R., Soiza, R., Swift, P., Thomson, E., Turner, J., Viljoen, M., Heath, P. & Ster, I. 2024, 'The predictive role of symptoms in COVID-19 diagnostic models: A longitudinal insight', Epidemiology and Infection, 152, article no: e37. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268824000037
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- Repository URI
- https://hdl.handle.net/2164/22913