Deriving and validating a risk prediction model for long COVID : a population-based, retrospective cohort study in Scotland

Authors: Jeffrey, Karen;

Hammersley, Vicky;

Maini, Rishma ;

Crawford, Anna;

Woolford, Lana;

Batchelor, Ashleigh;

Weatherill, David;

Millington, Tristan;

Kerr, Robin;

Basetti, Siddharth;

Macdonald, Calum ;

Quint, Jennifer K. ;

Kerr, Steven ;

Shah, Syed Ahmar ;

Kurdi, Amanj ;

Simpson, Colin R. ;

Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal ;

Rudan, Igor ;

Robertson, Chris;

Ritchie, Lewis;

Sheikh, Aziz ;

Daines, Luke

Source: Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine

Full text

: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/90951/

Abstract

Objectives: Using electronic health records, we derived and internally validated a prediction model to estimate risk factors for long COVID and predict individual risk of developing long COVID. Design: Population-based, retrospective cohort study. Setting: Scotland Participants: Adults (≥18 years) with a positive COVID-19 test, registered with a general medical practice between March 1, 2020 and October 20, 2022. Main outcome measures: Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for predictors of long COVID, and patients’ predicted probabilities of developing long COVID. Results: 68,486 (5.6%) patients were identified as having long COVID. Predictors of long COVID were increasing age (aOR 3.84; 95%CI 3.66-4.03 and aOR 3.66 95%CI 3.27-4.09 in first and second splines), increasing body mass index (BMI) (aOR 3.17; 95%CI 2.78-3.61 and aOR 3.09 95%CI 2.13-4.49 in first and second splines), severe COVID-19 (aOR 1.78; 95%CI 1.72-1.84); female sex (aOR 1.56; 95%CI 1.53-1.60), deprivation (most versus least deprived quintile, aOR 1.40; 95%CI 1.36-1.44), several existing health conditions. Predictors associated with reduced long COVID risk were testing positive while Delta or Omicron variants were dominant, relative to when the Wild-type variant was dominant (aOR 0.85; 95%CI 0.81-0.88 and aOR 0.64; 95%CI 0.61-0.67, respectively) having received one or two doses of COVID-19 vaccination, relative to unvaccinated (aOR 0.90; 95%CI 0.86-0.95 and aOR 0.96; 95%CI 0.93-1.00). Conclusions: Older age, higher BMI, severe COVID-19 infection, female sex, deprivation, and comorbidities were predictors of long COVID. Vaccination against COVID-19 and testing positive while Delta or Omicron variants were dominant predicted reduced risk

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Jeffrey, K., Hammersley, V., Maini, R., Crawford, A., Woolford, L., Batchelor, A., Weatherill, D., Millington, T., Kerr, R., Basetti, S., Macdonald, C., Quint, J., Kerr, S., Shah, S., Kurdi, A., Simpson, C., Katikireddi, S., Rudan, I., Robertson, C., Ritchie, L., Sheikh, A. & Daines, L. 2024, 'Deriving and validating a risk prediction model for long COVID : a population-based, retrospective cohort study in Scotland', Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine. https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/90951/

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Repository URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/90951/