Estimated number of lives directly saved by COVID-19 vaccination programs in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to March 2023

Background By March 2023, 54 countries, areas and territories (thereafter “CAT”) reported over 2.2 million coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths to the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe. Here, we estimate how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the Region, from December 2020 through March 2023.

Methods We estimated the number of lives directly saved by age-group, vaccine dose and circulating Variant of Concern (VOC) period, both regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and COVID-19 vaccine uptake reported by 34 CAT, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) data from the literature. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths.

Findings We found that vaccines reduced deaths by 57% overall (CAT range: 15% to 75%), representing ∼1.4 million lives saved in those aged ≥25 years (range: 0.7 million to 2.6 million): 96% of lives saved were aged ≥60 years and 52% were aged ≥80 years; first boosters saved 51%, and 67% were saved during the Omicron period.

Interpretation Over nearly 2.5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination were in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among these most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures.