COVID-19 mortality risk factors have been established in large cohort studies; long-term mortality outcomes are less documented.

We performed multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with in-patient mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission in symptomatic COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals in South-East Scotland from 1st March to 30th June 2020. One-year mortality was reviewed.

Of 726 patients (median age 72; interquartile range: 58–83 years, 55% male), 104 (14%) required ICU admission and 199 (27%) died in hospital. A further 64 died between discharge and 30th June 2021 (36% overall 1-year mortality). Stepwise logistic regression identified age >79 (odds ratio (OR), 4.77 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.96–12.75)), male sex (OR, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.21–2.80)) and higher European Cooperative Oncology Group/World Health Organization performance status as associated with higher mortality risk.

Poor functional baseline was the predominant independent risk factor for mortality in COVID-19. More than one-third of individuals had died by 1 year following admission.

Cite as

Mutch, C., Ross, D., Bularga, A., Nicola Rose Cave, R., Chase-Topping, M., Anand, A., Mills, N., Koch, O., Mackintosh, C., Perry, M. & DataLoch COVID-19 Collaborative 2022, 'Performance status: A key factor in predicting mortality in the first wave of COVID-19 in South-East Scotland', Journal of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh. https://doi.org/10.1177/14782715221120137

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Last updated: 20 June 2023
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