Scale of obesity challenge in Scotland highlighted by new research
First published on 13 October 2025
New research from Public Health Scotland (PHS), conducted in collaboration with Sciensano* and recently published in Public Health, the journal of the Royal Society of Public Health, projects a surge in the number of adult cases of excess weight in Scotland by 2040. The findings highlight the scale of the challenge for both population health and future care services.
Current estimates from the Scottish Health Survey show that around two-thirds of Scottish adults are overweight, and one-third are living with obesity. These figures are disproportionately higher than other UK nations and among the highest compared to other European Union countries.
This new research analysed data from the Scottish Health Survey and found that, without urgent and sustained intervention, the number of adults who are overweight or living with obesity is set to rise significantly.
Dr Grant Wyper, Principal Epidemiologist, PHS, said:
"Our findings highlight the stark challenge ahead. We estimate 3.3 million cases of adult excess weight by 2040, with more pronounced increases for obesity. Between 2025 and 2040, we estimate an additional 118,000 female and 36,000 male cases of obesity.
“Furthermore, recent increases in excess weight among adults aged 65 and above are projected to intensify towards 2040, signalling growing and more complex pressures on Scotland’s health and social care systems in the coming decades.
“These findings should be seen as a clear warning, but the projections are not inevitable. Delivering on the Population Health Framework priority to improve healthy weight is vital.
“Excess weight is linked to a wide range of health conditions, including premature death, meaning that our findings point to the risk of future adverse impacts on population health and unsustainable pressure on healthcare services.”
Claire Hislop RNutr (Public Health), Organisational Lead – Food & Physical Activity, PHS, added:
"The time for incremental change is over. The evidence shows we must accelerate progress on bold, preventative measures that reshape the food environment and ensure healthier options are accessible, affordable and widely available.
“At the same time, we must strengthen comprehensive weight management and support services to improve the health and wellbeing of the people of Scotland. This approach aligns with the ambitions of the Population Health Framework.
“The framework priority for improving healthy weight needs a whole system package of prevention and treatment measures to improve levels of healthy weight, alongside ongoing policy developments to create conditions for better health and reduced inequalities.”
Read more about the Population Health Framework
Read the Scottish Public Health Systems consensus statement on improving Scotland’s diet and weight
*Sciensano is the federal research institute for public and animal health in Belgium.