Estimated Prevalence of Opioid Dependence in Scotland
2014/15 to 2022/23

About this release

This release by Public Health Scotland (PHS) presents estimates of the number of people aged 15 to 64 years old with opioid dependence, along with estimates of the prevalence of this group among Scotland’s general population.

Estimates for Scotland and seven NHS Boards (Ayrshire and Arran, Fife, Grampian, Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Lanarkshire, Lothian, and Tayside) are provided, broken down by sex (female, male), age group (15 to 34, 35 to 49, and 50 to 64 years) and financial year (2014/15 to 2022/23).

This is the second report from a public health surveillance collaboration between PHS, the University of Bristol, and Glasgow Caledonian University. Plans to further develop these statistics are described in the Official statistics in development report.

Main points

Estimates are presented with 95% credible intervals (CrI) to represent the extent of uncertainty around each finding. All population size estimates over one thousand have been rounded to the nearest hundred. Due to some inconsistency in evidence across data sources, 2022/23 estimates should be interpreted with caution (see Appendix 4 in the main report for further details).

In 2022/23:

• The estimated number of people with opioid dependence in Scotland was 43,400 (95% CrI: 41,900 to 45,100). This represents an estimated prevalence of 1.23% (95% CrI: 1.19% to 1.28%) of 15- to 64-year-olds.
• Among males aged 15 to 64 years, the prevalence of opioid dependence was estimated to be 1.74% (95% CrI: 1.67% to 1.81%). Among females aged 15 to 64 years, it was estimated to be 0.75% (95% CrI: 0.73% to 0.78%).
• The prevalence of opioid dependence was estimated as 0.67% (95% CrI: 0.62% to 0.72%) among people aged 15 to 34 years, 2.39% (95% CrI: 2.32% to 2.48%) among people aged 35 to 49 years, and 0.88% (95% CrI: 0.83% to 0.94%) among people aged 50 to 64 years.
• An estimated 62% of people with opioid dependence received opioid agonist therapy (OAT) at least once during the year, while 75% had received OAT at some point during the five-year period 2018/19 to 2022/23.

Between 2014/15 and 2022/23:

• There was evidence of a small reduction (-5,300 people (95% CrI: -8,100 to -2,600)) in the prevalence of opioid dependence.
• There was a reduction (-8,200 (95% CrI: -9,400 to -7,000)) in the number of people with opioid dependence aged 15 to 34 years and an increase (5,700 (95% CrI: 4,900 to 6,600)) in the number aged 50 to 64 years.

Background

All estimates in this report were calculated using a recently developed statistical modelling approach, 'Multi-Parameter Estimation of Prevalence' (MPEP). MPEP brings multiple linked data sources together to make inferences about the size of the population and its prevalence. In this instance, the model used linked PHS-held administrative data on Opioid Agonist Therapy (OAT) prescriptions, drug-related deaths and overdose-related hospital admissions from the Scottish Public Health Drug Linkage Programme.

Further details about the MPEP approach and key assumptions underpinning the results are listed in the Methods section of the report. As with the results of any statistical modelling, the estimates described in this report may be subject to change as new data (additional years or event types) are incorporated into the model. See the Glossary in the main report for more information about any technical terms used.

Opioid Agonist Therapy (OAT), such as methadone and buprenorphine, is treatment prescribed to prevent withdrawal and reduce cravings for opioid drugs. This is equivalent to the term Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST) used in other PHS publications.

Further information

The next release of this publication will be March 2026.